When Syracuse and Florida State met on Feb. 11, both were middling Atlantic Coast Conference teams with a shot at an NCAA Tournament bid.

But the Seminoles’ (17-12, 7-10 ACC) loss to the Orange that night kickstarted a five-game skid that has FSU needing to win the ACC tournament (highly unlikely) to dance this March. SU (19-11, 9-8) could really use a win on Saturday to pad a mixed tournament resume, and Florida State has a chance to play spoiler at 2 p.m. in the Donald Tucker Center.

Here’s what you need to know about the Seminoles heading into the matchup.

All-time series: 6-1 in favor of Syracuse

Last time they played: SU shot the lights out on its way to an 85-72 win in the Carrier Dome on Feb. 11. To date, the 85 points are a season high, the team field-goal percentage of 62 percent is a season high (and highest since March 5, 2011), Syracuse’s 31 made field goalas are the second most this season and its 3-point-shooting percentage of 47.1 is the fourth best this season.

The Florida State report: Fitting in with this season’s ACC narrative, FSU is an overall spotty team that can jump on a superior opponent on any given night. The Seminoles beat then-No. 13 Virginia, 69-62, on Jan. 17. And in its most recent game, it snapped that five-game losing streak with a 77-56 win over No. 23 Notre Dame. Florida State is led by a pair of freshmen scorers, Dwayne Bacon (team-high 15.8 points per game) and Malik Beasley (15.6), and is only really successful when at least one of the two is scoring in high volume. Aside from them, sophomore Xavier Rathan-Mayes is the only other double-digit scorer at 11.7 points per game and can catch fire from deep. The Seminoles are big inside — 7-foot-3 center Boris Bojanovsky starts and FSU is capable of bringing other bigs off the bench — but often play four out and don’t look to pound the ball into the paint.

How Syracuse beats Florida State: If Syracuse shoots to a remotely similar degree that it did in early February, this game won’t be a problem. But a more reliable formula is to limit Bacon and Beasley, something the Orange zone did as its first matchup of the season wore on. In that game, the freshman pair combined for 21 first-half points and the Seminoles trailed by three at the break. They then scored just four combined points in the second as SU pulled away for the 13-point win. The Syracuse zone can afford to extend and give Bojanovsky and FSU’s other bigs a chance to beat it inside — at least until that becomes a noticeable problem. It would be much worse for Bacon, Beasley, Rathan-Mayes and off-the-bench shooter Devon Bookert to control the game from the perimeter. None of the Seminoles “good” wins this season include a particularly impressive performance from a big man, and that should tell you a lot about how they operate.

Stat to know: Montay Brandon, an FSU starter and a key offensive player in recent years, has been used on just 11.5 percent of the Seminoles possessions this season according to Kenpom.com. Kenpom’s defines usage as ending a possession with a made shot, turnover or missed shot that is rebounded by the opposing team. Brandon’s low usage rate classifies him as a “Nearly invisible” player on Kenpom, and if Syracuse is being beat by Florida State’s guards and bigs, forcing Brandon to beat the zone could be something to try.

Player to watch: It’s very easy for defenses to focus too hard on Bacon and Beasley, and even Rathan-Mayes, and fall into a trance of sorts. That’s when Booker will start beating teams, like when he scored an efficient nine points on five shots in 15 minutes on Syracuse earlier this season. He’s also the Seminoles’ most efficient 3-point shooter with a 40.2 clip from beyond the arc this season. It wouldn’t be terrible for the Orange if Bookert steals a bucket or two, but letting him get hot would create a few different problems for the zone.

Published on March 4, 2016 at 6:37 pm

Contact Jesse: jcdoug01@syr.edu | @dougherty_jesse