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Syracuse travels to Pittsburgh for its second consecutive conference road game on Saturday, and the Orange are looking for revenge against the Panthers following a 16-point second half collapse on Jan. 6. 

SU has lost two conference games in a row following their conference-opening win against Boston College in December. A loss would drop SU to a 1-3 conference start for the third time in four seasons. 

Here’s what to know about the Panthers before their rematch on Saturday at 12 p.m.: 

All-time series

Syracuse leads 73-46

Last time they played

In their last game against the Orange, the Panthers rallied from 16 points down with 11 minutes to play and won 63-60 in the Carrier Dome. The Orange jumped out to an 11-0 lead in the first half and led by as many as 18 in the first half, but their offense struggled down the stretch. When Quincy Guerrier got into foul trouble, the Panthers imposed their size on the offensive and defensive glass. SU settled for too many long 3s and allowed Pitt back into the game.

Pitt forward Au’Diese Toney tipped in a missed 3, the Orange turned it over on their final possession and Alan Griffin’s 3 from halfcourt missed at the buzzer. Griffin finished with 15 points to lead the Orange and Robert Braswell hit his first four 3s of the season, scoring 12 points in defeat. 

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 57% chance to beat Pittsburgh, by a projected score of 71-69. 

The Pittsburgh report

Pittsburgh’s only game since Dec. 22 was the upset win against Syracuse. The team has played very little basketball due to COVID-19 issues both within their program and within their scheduled opponents’ program. The Panthers rank 15th in offensive rebounding rate, which may give SU fans nightmares after UNC pulled in 24 offensive rebounds in its win against the Orange on Tuesday. 

Pitt defends the 3 really well, holding opponents to 27.3% from 3, but doesn’t shoot it well, ranking in the bottom 100 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 30.2%.

The Panthers are offensively challenged in both ball protection and free throw shooting, ranking in the bottom 100 in turnover rate and the bottom 40 in free throw percentage on the year. While the Panthers did make both crucial free throws in the final seconds against Syracuse, they are shooting 60.9% for the year.

While head coach Jeff Capel said that star forward Justin Champagnie is expected to return sooner than expected from his LCL injury, he’s still not practicing and will not play against the Orange on Saturday. 

Guard Xavier Johnson did not have his best game in terms of shooting in the Carrier Dome on Jan. 6, finishing with 12 points on 1-of-7 shooting. But the junior added seven assists and three steals and helped the Panthers’ offense significantly in the second half after they scored 18 first half points. Johnson ranks 10th nationally in assist rate and top 100 in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. The Orange need to keep him out of the paint if they want to win the game.

How Syracuse beats the Panthers

Play a full 40 minutes. SU’s inconsistency has been one of the few constants of the 2020-21 season. The Orange failed to put together a full 40 minutes against the Panthers, and had they, they’d have won the game going away. All of the good work they did to build a commanding 16-point lead was washed away in the collapse. 

Syracuse must move the ball fluidly through the Panthers defense and not settle for long jumpers. Marek Dolezaj needs to attempt more than three shots, and head coach Jim Boeheim said as much in his postgame presser after UNC. The Orange should try to work their offense inside through Guerrier and Dolezaj before trying to go outside to Joe Girard III and Buddy Boeheim. 

Given that the Panthers have now played one game in 25 days, the Orange should also look to push the pace and test the game fitness of the Panthers.

Player to watch: Au’Diese Toney, Forward, No. 5 

Toney’s game-winning rebound and tip-in was the difference between the Orange and the Panthers on Jan. 6, and his presence on the interior with rebounding helped Pitt mount its comeback. Early in the game, the Orange frustrated the forward and forced multiple turnovers. Toney has been inconsistent on the ball and did turn it over six times in that game. But he also grabbed 14 rebounds, four offensive and controlled the glass. Guerrier and Griffin will need to know where the junior is at all times, because he’s shown an ability to step out and hit 3s too. Toney has made 10-of-25 from beyond the arc this season.

Source: KenPom.com

Stat to know: 1.5%

Pittsburgh’s win probability was as low as 1.5% with 11 minutes to play in the Carrier Dome on Jan. 6. The Orange’s win probability was north of 75% for almost the entirety of the game, and it wasn’t until the Pitt 3-pointer to tie the game at 57 with 1:57 to play that KenPom saw the Orange as not clear favorites to win that game at home. It’s the eighth biggest comeback of the entire college basketball season, according to KenPom’s metrics.

Published on January 14, 2021 at 1:36 pm

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo