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Syracuse’s slim chances at a postseason berth became even slimmer after it’s 64-53 loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, and the Orange will now host Wake Forest for the second time this season on Jan. 29. The loss dropped SU to 12th place in the conference heading into its final 11 games. Buddy Boeheim led SU with 25 points against the Panthers, but as a team, Syracuse shot just 30% from the field and its offense failed to top 59 points for the second consecutive game. Cole Swider and Joe Girard III combined to shoot 4-for-23 from the field. The Orange allowed two Pitt players to record double-doubles. They were outrebounded by seven. And they let another double-digit lead slip away, this time to the Atlantic Coast Conference’s 14th-place team. Here’s everything you need to know about the Demon Deacons:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 9-2.

Last time they played

The Orange led by as many as eight points in the second half, but Wake Forest erased that lead, converted a dunk in the final 10 seconds of regulation and then pulled away in overtime for a 77-74 victory. Isaiah Mucius had stepped out of bounds while attempting a 3 with 16 seconds left in regulation, giving Syracuse an opportunity to win, yet Buddy couldn’t cleanly collect possession and SU turned the ball over. Wake Forest then set up a play, featuring a pass from the top of the key down to Dallas Walton on the block, for a game-tying dunk. Jimmy Boeheim led the Orange with 21 points and Swider added a double-double with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Swider’s jumper on the first possession of overtime, though, served as Syracuse’s only basket in that frame, allowing Wake Forest to ultimately hand SU its third consecutive loss.

KenPom odds

Wake Forest has a 61% chance to win, with a projected score of 79-76.

The Wake Forest report

Since the first game against Syracuse, the Demon Deacons have compiled a 4-1 record and risen to fifth in the ACC standings. They scored 98 points against North Carolina, defeated Boston College by 30 and picked up three double-digit wins overall in that span. In Wake Forest’s most recent game against the Eagles, Alondes Williams led with 20 points and was one of five players to score double-digits as the Wake Forest shot over 50% from the field. Williams still tops the Demon Deacons this season with 20.4 points per game, and his percentage of possessions used (30.4) ranks 52nd nationally, per KenPom. His assist rate also sits within the top 50 in the country.  Jake LaRavia and Daivien Williamson also average double-digit points, while Williams serves as Wake Forest’s leading rebounder at 6.8 per game. Its offense and defense both rank inside the top 45 in terms of adjusted efficiency, and within the conference, Williams averages the most points and LaRavia’s field goal percentage (59.6) is the fifth-best.

How Syracuse beats the Demon Deacons

First, the Orange’s offense will need to score more than 59 points for the first time in three games. Wake Forest hasn’t scored below 61 this year, with that coming against an LSU team currently ranked No. 19 in the AP Top 25 poll, and it holds the second best scoring offense in the ACC. For most of the season, SU’s never-ending problem had been a porous defense that lost more games than its offense won, but in the last week, that has flipped for parts of the game.  Buddy rediscovered some sort of rhythm against Pittsburgh, but he’s still continued to either miss open shots or not have open opportunities as defenses have adjusted their approach to him this season. The Demon Deacons were one of the teams that limited him, as Buddy went 5-of-20 from the field and 2-of-9 from 3.  Another performance like that will require the Orange to rely on more secondary scoring, like they did with Jimmy in that first meeting with Wake Forest, and they’ll need Jesse Edwards to produce as well. That’ll be vital for defending WFU’s interior offense while also preventing Mucius from shooting open 3s in the corner. Edwards has improved in that element defensively throughout the season, and SU will need him to flash those strides once again on Saturday.

Stat to know: 59.7%

The Demon Deacons and their 59.7% 2-point percentage rank third in the country, according to KenPom. LaRavia, a 6-foot-8 junior, ranks 44th with a 67.7% clip that leads the team.

Player to watch: Isaiah Mucius, forward, No. 1

Mucius only averages 9.8 points per game, but he scored 18 points in the Jan. 8 win over the Orange — with four of his five makes coming from beyond the arc. The Demon Deacons are primarily an interior-driven offense, as their 3-point percentage ranks 209th, per KenPom, but Mucius has been a bright spot from long range in his senior season, as his 45 3s lead Wake Forest. Syracuse has struggled to defend anywhere on the court this season, but especially on 3-pointers, meaning that Mucius will again be key to WFU attacking the 2-3 zone on Saturday. He hit a deep 3 late in the first half versus SU even with Symir Torrence closing out, and all of his 3-point makes came in the opening frame. Mucius then proceeded to miss all four of his second-half attempts and didn’t shoot in overtime, and his ability to convert those shots throughout the entire game will force Syracuse to track him beyond the arc even while trying to contain opportunities inside the 2-3 zone.

Published on January 27, 2022 at 1:04 am

Contact Andrew: arcrane@syr.edu | @CraneAndrew