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Over the past two weeks, Syracuse has inched its way back into the national conversation, climbing up the national rankings after each win. The Orange’s last win came over North Carolina after Michael Leo scored in the final 15 seconds to give them a 15-14 victory.

The last two games of SU’s regular season will make or break Syracuse’s chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament. It has a 0.9% chance of getting an at-large bid, per LacrosseReference. The final slate begins in Charlottesville, Virginia against a Cavaliers’ side that has dropped two of their last three games.

Here’s everything to know about No. 4 Virginia (8-3, 2-2 Atlantic Coast) before the matchup:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 79-26-2.

Last time they played

Syracuse’s 2022 season hit a new low against Virginia. The Orange’s 21-15 loss to the Cavaliers marked their fifth-straight defeat, the program’s longest losing streak since 1975. SU’s offense performed, but the defense allowed runs in the first and third quarter which ultimately put the game out of reach.

“They showed up offensively from the start and took advantage of our mistakes, and unfortunately we kept making them and let them build a lead,” head coach Gary Gait said.

Eight minutes into the game, Gait replaced starting goalie Bobby Gavin — who allowed five goals and made just one save — with Harrison Thompson. The backup helped stabilize SU briefly before halftime.

Jackson Birtwistle brought Syracuse back into the game with a career-high five points in his first start. Still, a third straight quarter with six goals was enough for the Orange to overcome. Tucker Dordevic and Brendan Curry combined for just five points.

The Cavaliers report

Virginia was a mainstay in the top two rankings nationally for the majority of the season, until it lost to Duke last weekend. The Cavaliers also lost to the Blue Devils two weeks ago, though both games were decided by two or less scores.

Xander Dickson, Connor Shellenberger and Payton Cormier have led UVA’s attack for the second straight year. Cormier averaged 4.22 goals per game, which is second-best nationally, and Shellenberger is second-best in the country in assists per game with 3.60.

Virginia’s attack has five players with 20 points or more overall and is averaging a nation-leading 11.82 assists per game. The attack also takes extremely efficient shots with the best shot percentage in the country, according to LacrosseReference.

The Cavaliers are weakest on the defensive end, sitting at 51st nationally in scoring defense by allowing 12.73 goals per game. Matthew Nunes is a solid goalie, saving 50.8% of shots he faces, but The Cavaliers’ defensive efficiency by time is 20th worst in the country, according to Lacrosse Reference.

How Syracuse beats Virginia

The saying “defense wins championships” couldn’t be more important for Syracuse than this upcoming weekend. Syracuse’s offense is equipped to score at will against the Cavaliers mediocre defense. This game will be decided by the few stops Syracuse can make defensively, specifically with how it maintains Shellenberger.

The loss of Landon Clary has been tough for the Orange, but it’s one that they’ve done a good job of overcoming. Caden Kol has stepped up, while Nick Caccamo and Billy Dwan have helped out too, despite not having as much experience.

As long as Saam Olexo continues to force turnovers in the defensive midfield and there’s little miscommunication between the close defense, SU could hold UVA to around 15 goals.

Syracuse’s offense might have some problems if Joey Spallina can’t get going. The Orange have lost in most games in which Spallina has scored under five points — his skills facilitating from the X are crucial for the Orange’s attack. Cole Kastner will bully Spallina, especially on the ride, likely preventing him from getting in front of the cage from X. There’s no way to predict how Spallina fares against Kastner.

Stat to know: 17.82

Simply put, head coach Lars Tiffany’s attacks love to score. Virginia averages 17.82 goals per game this season, almost one goal more than the next closest team, Utah. The three-pronged attack of Dickson, Shellenberger and Cormier have consistently caused issues for opposing defenses. All three are in the top 20 for points per game nationally.

The Cavaliers have scored 25 goals in two games this year, defeating Harvard and Richmond in the first four games of the season. They haven’t scored more than 20 goals since then but have reached 19 scores twice, including two weeks ago against the Tar Heels. Cormier finished with five goals on eight shots in that game.

Player to watch: Anthony Dattellas, attack, No. 23

Last year, Tiffany said Shellenberger was half of the “two-headed quarterback” in charge of UVA’s offense. His latter part, Matt Moore, graduated, but Shellenberger has maintained his role as facilitator of UVA’s attack. Shellenberger leads the country with 36 assists this year — he’s averaging almost one more assist per game than he did in 2022. He has 19 more assists than the next closest Virginia player.

Published on April 19, 2023 at 10:21 pm

Contact Anish: asvasude@syr.edu | @anish_vasu